Odds? What odds?

[freonguy]

Just a quick LEH rant - I haven't applied for anything for several years; my buddy puts in for Cow / Calf in 7-09 ( which he was also successfully last
year ) and gets it - - I, on the other hand got a big fat ' NIL '.:icon_frow

I guess there is the chance that I screwed up the card, but I don't think so.

Has this happened to anyone else?

Freonguy

[mike_b]

I have been skunked for the last 4 years!!!! After I fill out my cards (in black ink), I ALWAYS have my hunting buddies look it over for me to make sure there aren't any screw-ups. AGH!! HOR$E$HIT!!

[ratherbefishin]

We put in for a shared ''any bull'' hunt in 7-09- and drew NIL for 6 years in a row now....

[Leaseman]

Well........

My last draw was 1996 for lower odds moose.....6:1

Never mind talking about deer, bison, elk.........:roll:

My son who is in his third year as a hunter has also recieved the mighty NIL for his second go around........:(

[oddsix]

My dads been reading NIL's for the last 28 years, and i've drawn the last for years in a row :)

[pikey]

I talked to my Wife's uncle last night,
He got a flat top whitey draw this year.
Last year he got 1 out of 4 bull moose draws by his cabin.
The year before he got whatever....you get the picture.

His wife putting in for the same draws the same area....never been drawn in 17 years.

Who knows?

[The Hermit]

I'm surprised none of you guys complain about not winning the 649!!! LOL

[Tanya]

Each year I've put in multiple LEH cards and in 11 years have had one shared draw for a moose. I guess I can't complain too, too much I see pikey has fared worse off than I. John got his second choice goat, and our son like myself NILLED once again. I really think it is time for a preference point system to be set up.

[pikey]

Each year I've put in multiple LEH cards and in 11 years have had one shared draw for a moose. I guess I can't complain too, too much I see pikey has fared worse off than I. John got his second choice goat, and our son like myself NILLED once again. I really think it is time for a preference point system to be set up.


That was my wife's family I was talking about, I'm doing just fine.

They share their game and hunts anyway, otherwise Uncle would be sleeping in the shed.

He is the luckiest guy at LEH I know and she is the Unluckiest, so I guess they compliment each other well!

[ratherbefishin]

I think a sliding scale of odds would be more acceptable-your chances increasing each year you aren't drawn.There' s just something wrong with a system where 2 or 3 guys can't get one chance at a bull moose year after year in an area where moose are plentiful,and given the odds that only 50% of the time they will actually harvest an animal even if they do get a draw.I could understand it if there were more hunters after fewer moose-but we have HALF the hunters in the field and theoretically,game management is supposed to result in at least stable,if not increasing moose numbers,and that should translate into INCREASED harvest opportunities-not DECREASED .

[Slee]

I think the system is just fine. We can hunt every animal thats on the leh system except bison, dall, and moose elk cows...... I lived in AB when I was younger and went through there priority system and the 999 my draw.... It isnt what is cracked up to be. Do you realy think with that system your realy going to get the Kamloops lake sheep, or the salmo shepp, or bison??? It would take a guy 40 or 50 years to get the tag. You know why??? because every guy that doesnt put in for sheep now will start to put in for it. Because one day they will be able to hunt sheep from their car at syringa creek.........


If you are relying on an LEH draw for your entire hunting season start applying for 1:1 or less odds! Or get off your butt and put some miles on your truck and hunt our unbelievable GOS!

[krazy]

I'm surprised none of you guys complain about not winning the 649!!! LOL

That's funny! They say that a lottery is a tax on people that aren't very good at math. Some of the LEH's seem no different. I apply every year anyway and look at it as my yearly donation to the cause. If I get a draw it's a bonus but I definatley don't plan on it.

On the "odds" thing ... unless there is a provision to reduce/increase future odds based on successful (or not) draws (like it is for moose) then it really makes no difference how long you go between successful draws cause your odds get reset every year. For example if you flip a coin the odds are 50/50 that it will land on heads. In other words 1 of 2 flips should result in heads. So if you get heads on your first flip what are the odds of getting heads on the second flip? The answer is still 50/50. It doesn't matter what happened in the past, every new flip will be 50/50.

ps - another nil this year for me (which puts me at 3 in 20 years).

[Kody94]

I'm surprised none of you guys complain about not winning the 649!!! LOL

If most of my friends and acquantainces had won it multiple times, I probably would! ;)

[3006pg]

i have been putting in for leh 6 years and been hunting seven i think ive only drew nil twice , its just the luck of the draw, which i got this year. owell

[wolverine]

I guess I'll have to wait for the snail mail to come with the card in it because the internet site says I got a draw for a Bison in 7-57.... I never put in for a draw for a bison. So I either got some poor bugger's bison or they screwed up the hunt code on the internet. Sad thing is I'll never use it if they did give me a bison and it will lessen my odds for being drawn for the next few years. What the hell? Do they have junior high students filling summer jobs or some damn thing? This system needs to be revamped, seriously.

[BlacktailStalker]

9 years and 0-4 or more every time.
Oh well maybe I'll draw a roosevelt, loops sheep and bison all in one year.







Yeah, maybe NOT :roll: :lol:

[Gateholio]

I guess I'll have to wait for the snail mail to come with the card in it because the internet site says I got a draw for a Bison in 7-57.... I never put in for a draw for a bison. So I either got some poor bugger's bison or they screwed up the hunt code on the internet. Sad thing is I'll never use it if they did give me a bison and it will lessen my odds for being drawn for the next few years. What the hell? Do they have junior high students filling summer jobs or some damn thing? This system needs to be revamped, seriously.


Luckily, I believe a bison draw is one that CAN be returned if you can't use it.

[MichaelB]

If you are relying on an LEH draw for your entire hunting season start applying for 1:1 or less odds! Or get off your butt and put some miles on your truck and hunt our unbelievable GOS![/quote]

I never got drawn for my 1:1 whitetail doe! :biggrin: No complaints though. 25 tags were issued, and if 40 hunters applied we can't all get one....

This year will be my first hunting season in BC as I had left here many moons ago and have returned in Dec. of last year. I had been hunting in Texas every year that I lived down south and had my choice of hunting......hmmm, Whitetail deer. There were also the odd pig and turkey as well as some good bird hunting but all of it was done from my little 10 acre plot of land that I had leased for 3G a year! I hunted more or less from the same treestand as it was the most productive spot on the lease. Hardly moving.....
Needless to say I am thrilled at the LEH. For $6 a tag I get a bonus chance at a fantastic hunt! I appplied for all but bison and caribou and was lucky enough to get drawn for 3. In the absense of getting drawn there is still so many options for great hunting. Almost all species can be taken and you have unlimited land to explore.
I love this place and think the system like all gov't systems is not without flaws....but yesterday felt like Christmas and I'm thankful to get the chance at some incredible hunts. BC has a great GOS and I feel lucky to have the chance at hunting it. My friends back in Texas send me hate mail daily.:grin:
Just felt like adding some positivity. Hopefully I'll add some stories and animals too this fall.

MB

[wolverine]

Luckily, I believe a bison draw is one that CAN be returned if you can't use it.

That's exactly what I'll do if it can be done. I would hate to see it go to waste. Does it go back into a draw or what?

[Slee]

I never got drawn for my 1:1 whitetail doe! :biggrin: No complaints though. 25 tags were issued, and if 40 hunters applied we can't all get one....


How is that a 1:1 odd???? Is there a new math system out there that I dont know about?

[ratherbefishin]

when two or three guys put in for a group or shared hunt for 6 years in a area with about 6:1 odds without drawing a tag, something is wrong.

[Slee]

when two or three guys put in for a group or shared hunt for 6 years in a area with about 6:1 odds without drawing a tag, something is wrong.

How is that wrong? 6:1 odds aren't that great. its only a 32% (shared hunt) chance of getting drawn. Would you put money on a health with those odds?? I know I wouldnt.

[spreerider]

i am nil 8 years in a row and my dad is nil since he started entering before i was born so at least 25 nils for him.
I think my uncle used all our familys luck when he won the jackpot on a scratch ticket.

[MichaelB]

Hey Slee,
I would say that the odds are based on last years numbers since there is no way of knowing how many will apply for this year. The only thing that is consisitant is the number of tags (in this case 25). I suppose last year only 25 applied and that's what gave us our odds at 1:1. This year since more must have applied then the number of tags that were being issued....nice guys like me end up eating stinky buck meat.:mrgreen:

I will be interested to see next years odds on the same hunt. If they still say 1:1 then I must have gotten robbed and I will start next years complaint thread.

[FlyingHigh]

i'm into my 4th year hunting. 3rd year putting in for LEH. i finally got a doe. didn't get anything the first 2 years. and for what it's worth, i haven't bagged a big game animal yet either. i have a feeling this is MY year. :D

[TheDuckinator]

You need a first year hunter to join your party, first time i put in for doe i got it after my dad's been trying for 20something years and gotten it once before :p. It increases your odds and introduces newbies to the sport, so if you got a neighbor/friend whose been eying your trophies get him to go through the shamoggle than throw him in your group.

[308Lover]

No one should get a repeat tag in the same zone 2 yrs running. You should not be allowed to even enter for 3 yrs! (in that zone for that animal)
THEY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH STAFF WITH THE ABILITY TO WEED OUT THIS PROBLEM. GET THE DAMN THING COMPUTERIZED! WE COULD LOG IN WITH OUR HUNTER INFO AND GO FROM THERE.

[freonguy]

Form the guy who started the post -

Here is the rub - Page 3 of the LEH , middle column, bottom section -

'' All hunters drawn in 2008 for any species except Mule and W/T deer, will have their odds reduced in 2009 if they apply for the same species again, regardless of region of hunt. Hunters should be aware that any LEH hunt they drew last year, except Mule and W/T deer, will affect their odds in the 2009 LEH draw.''

It goes on to explain some more road apples about odds, etc. - - my point is -
HOW DID MY BUDDY GET DRAWN and I didn't when he got a moose draw last year when we applied in the same zone??

I like the one where the fellow got the bison tag and didn't even apply.

Oh yes, there may have been a mistake on my part, and Canada Post may have conspired against me, but it was in the mail @ the Gibsons Post Office over 2 weeks ahead of the deadline.

By the way, having originally been raised in Saskatchewan ( and no, I like it out here, thank you ) their LEH system was this - if you were drawn the year prior you went to a " C ' pool, two years prior, a ' B ' pool and for those who had not been drawn in the past 2 or more years, you were in the ' A ' pool. So, depending on the numbers, say there were 100 tags for an area - 75 ' A ' applicants, 50 ' B ' applicants, and 50 ' C ' applicants - All 75 ' A ' applicants got a tag, a 50 / 50 shot to divvy up the remaining 25 tags among the ' B ' applicants and a snowballs chance for the ' C ' applicants - worked well and this was before computers - Oh well.

Just my two cents - keep the stories coming.

Freonguy

[1/2 slam]

How is that a 1:1 odd???? Is there a new math system out there that I dont know about?


Last years odds.......If 40 put in for 25 this year the odds won't show as 1:1 next year.

[Slee]

Last years odds.......If 20 put in for 25 the odds won't show as 1:1 next year.

You miss read the origanal post. He said 40 guys put in for 25 tags. Thats not 1:1 odds........

[ratherbefishin]

theoretically in a 6:1 odds with 3 guys applying, one tag should be drawn every second year,and when 6 years goes by-something is wrong

[XMD70]

The average hunter is very lucky to be able to get out any more than 30 seasons in a lifetime. I figure that any of the hunt codes that have odds of greater than 20 to 1 should be "once in a lifetime". If drawn for one of them, that person should not be able to apply ever again.

[smoke-eater]

theoretically in a 6:1 odds with 3 guys applying, one tag should be drawn every second year,and when 6 years goes by-something is wrong

not really. Your odds are the same every year! its no different then those people who have one 649 two or three times. luck of the draw!

You could apply for a tag 4 years in a row with two buddies on a tag with 2:1 odds. Lets say there are 8 tags every year. That means 16 guys apply every year. That means 8 guys dont get drawn!!!!!! you and your two buddies could be part of that 8 that dont get drawn every year!!! Thats the lottery.

You have three options here.


1- cry and whine about a flawed system.

2-next year apply for a tag that has better odds then 6:1 something more like 1:1 or .5:1 odds!!!!

3-pool your gas money with your hunting buddies and drive to a GOS area and have a blast and kill some animals!

I like numbers 2 and 3. What about you?

[Slee]

The average hunter is very lucky to be able to get out any more than 30 seasons in a lifetime. I figure that any of the hunt codes that have odds of greater than 20 to 1 should be "once in a lifetime". If drawn for one of them, that person should not be able to apply ever again.

Do you mean for that animal or just that one hunt code?

If you mean just for that one hunt code. A guy could get lucky and draw for the same animal multiple times in different areas.... Then your back at square one again

[sawmill]

The average hunter is very lucky to be able to get out any more than 30 seasons in a lifetime. I figure that any of the hunt codes that have odds of greater than 20 to 1 should be "once in a lifetime". If drawn for one of them, that person should not be able to apply ever again.

I agree.Although I must be lucky since I`ve hunted since age 12 and I`m now turning 50,that`s 38 seasons and I don`t plan to quit till I die at 83.But high value hunts should be a one time shot.Really,how many Buffalo or Stone sheep or Grizz or other once in a lifetime trophys do you need on the wall?I reckon once you get that dream you should be happy and let the next guy have a chance.I ain`t talking about a grand slam,one of each species,or mulies or moose or whities.I`m talking about guys with 3 or 4 buffalo or bighorn or grizz.I got one real big grizz and called it quits,my ex friend used to shoot one every spring and sell it to the Taxi in Smithers(Before the LEH)He took 12 in 12 years.That`s just wrong.
Probably gonna get in shit for this but .............just the way I feel.

[sawmill]

Oh by the way,I did not mean just drawn,I meant connect.

[Slee]

Oh by the way,I did not mean just drawn,I meant connect.


I was just going to ask that. The Alberta goat is a once in a life time tag whether or not you kill something.

[ratherbefishin]

no, I'll probably go way north to an GOS rather than not hunt-but I STILL think the system could be improved on- a lot .And I still am not convinced that with half the hunters in the field and all the management we have had, the available harvest should be increasing,even if populations remained static.
But if we DON'T ''cry and whine''whatever-the system is unlikely ever to be improved-

[sawmill]

The one thing that bothers me is how many folks have posted saying they haven`t been drawn in 15...20...27 years?IGod,your chances of a tag HAVE to be better than that!Is that caused by choosing really bad odds hunts?Or are these are guys who just want a deer or a moose just getting bad karma? I always go for LEH in my MU and have had pretty good sucsess,this year again.When I lived up north they had a cow /calf moose LEH and only 6 tags were let every year. I got one 6 years in a row,mostly because guys saw the amount but never looked at the odds,which were ******ed ,.3 to one.Those days are gone.I used to call it a shopping tag,fed me and mine all winter.
Rock Steady will remember when the MOE in Cranbrook had a first come/first served cow elk tag sale.There were guys camping out for 5 days waiting ,500 + guys for 150 tags The line up streached for blocks.(correct me if i`m wrong).
I talked to one of the last guys in line and he sayed"well there is a chance"

You are ALL right ...this show should be run by the men and women who live,work ,fish and hunt here and know more than anyone about how this should be managed.

[ratherbefishin]

I talked to a camp owner in 5-13 [6 years ago-my last successful LEH moose draw]and he was saying when they had a GOS in his area there were guys camped out every 200 yards down the road-and they took so many animals it took several years to recover.His point was a province wide GOS spread out the hunting pressure instead of concentrating it in a few areas.Makes sense to me,but as I said-unless there has been a huge decline in moose populations, with only half the hunters ,plus years of management-there should be MORE moose available-not FEWER-which averaging about 1 tag every 6 years translates to me[in the PG area-prime moose country]

[CanuckShooter]

The one thing that bothers me is how many folks have posted saying they haven`t been drawn in 15...20...27 years?IGod,your chances of a tag HAVE to be better than that!Is that caused by choosing really bad odds hunts?Or are these are guys who just want a deer or a moose just getting bad karma? I always go for LEH in my MU and have had pretty good sucsess,this year again.When I lived up north they had a cow /calf moose LEH and only 6 tags were let every year. I got one 6 years in a row,mostly because guys saw the amount but never looked at the odds,which were ******ed ,.3 to one.Those days are gone.I used to call it a shopping tag,fed me and mine all winter.
Rock Steady will remember when the MOE in Cranbrook had a first come/first served cow elk tag sale.There were guys camping out for 5 days waiting ,500 + guys for 150 tags The line up streached for blocks.(correct me if i`m wrong).
I talked to one of the last guys in line and he sayed"well there is a chance"

You are ALL right ...this show should be run by the men and women who live,work ,fish and hunt here and know more than anyone about how this should be managed.

Yup and i am one of those lucky guys, two moose draws since 1981...and then it really stings when buddies wife phones to tell me she got big bull in 7-10 for the third time in four consecutive applications.....enhanced odds my wazhoo....;-)

[dougan]

I guess I'll have to wait for the snail mail to come with the card in it because the internet site says I got a draw for a Bison in 7-57.... I never put in for a draw for a bison. So I either got some poor bugger's bison or they screwed up the hunt code on the internet. Sad thing is I'll never use it if they did give me a bison and it will lessen my odds for being drawn for the next few years. What the hell? Do they have junior high students filling summer jobs or some damn thing? This system needs to be revamped, seriously.i would phone someone on this for sure what did you put in for?

[freonguy]

Thanks for the lively banter from everyone -

Yeah, this statement may seem like sour grapes to the ' perpetually drawn ' few; but the system needs a re-vamp, especially when there are bison and moose tags drawn for persons not even applying for them. I still think a priority pool system at least gives you a much better chance - the way it is now, is it is an option to do the shotgun approach - apply for as many tags as possible, and, if you get drawn for something you really don't want, it is only six bucks and change out of your jeans. The result is then possible that someone who really wanted a tag in that area is SOL.

Better luck next time, and good luck to all the LEH drawees !

Freonguy

[d6dan]

I usually put in for a Sheep thats about 200:1. Probably never get it,but ya never know. Stuff happens,and i don't think it will change overnight. I got my 1st draw in 13yrs and I'm happy,cause I've never hunted moose. So I guess I will have some fun..

[MuleyMadness]

Myself I think it's just luck pure and simple. I got 1 doe draw in 16 years of putting in, then last year I get a cow/calf local draw, and this year I got a November Bull moose local draw and a bull elk draw in 7-20a late season so maybe it's just my time finally. I have also started putting in for later season hunts, particularly for moose when a lot of the folks have already hung it up for the most part with lots of authorizations available so maybe that's the ticket. Folks that put in for lottery shot draws like Kamloops sheep, Bison, and Island Elk and don't get them really should expect that, as the odds say a person would get one of those 3 every twenty years if putting them all in in the same region year after year. Now maybe if it's easy hunts to get that you're not getting, maybe you're just an unlucky ******* and should count yourself happy you haven't brained yourself with a chopstick or some such thing ;)

[d6dan]

Myself I think it's just luck pure and simple. I got 1 doe draw in 16 years of putting in, then last year I get a cow/calf local draw, and this year I got a November Bull moose local draw and a bull elk draw in 7-20a late season so maybe it's just my time finally. I have also started putting in for later season hunts, particularly for moose when a lot of the folks have already hung it up for the most part with lots of authorizations available so maybe that's the ticket. Folks that put in for lottery shot draws like Kamloops sheep, Bison, and Island Elk and don't get them really should expect that, as the odds say a person would get one of those 3 every twenty years if putting them all in in the same region year after year. Now maybe if it's easy hunts to get that you're not getting, maybe you're just an unlucky ******* and should count yourself happy you haven't brained yourself with a chopstick or some such thing ;)

You lucky B*****rd!. I wanted that draw for 7-20a. I hope you nail a big guy...:smile: Good luck.

[MuleyMadness]

I am hoping for the best. The real lucky part is three of my buddies put in for the antlerless where I put in for either sex and we ALL got drawn, so now it's a roadtrip...just gonna have to bring a trailer I guess to hopefully haul back all our animals :)

[ryanb]

ITS CALLED A LOTTERY FOR A REASON!!!! When will people understand?

[MuleyMadness]

I agree ryanb...like I said I had one hell of a dry spell with LEH for a long time so you know what I did...go out there and hunt whatever was opened and filled my freezer that way. And I also think that people are under the misconception that because it's LEH it's a sure thing. While that may be true for the doe draws, I would say it's anythig but for all the others, you still have to hunt hard and know what your doing. Sure it gives you a shot you didn't already have, but it's simply luck of the draw, people need to learn to accept that. Who knows, I may not get another draw for a long time after this year, but you won't hear me clamouring for change for the most of the LEH's. I do agree with what someone said that some of those once in a lifetime hunts should be exactly that...drawn once and you're done, but for the rest, it should be just who has the horseshoe up their azz that day and who doesn't.

[bigben]

.. Good luck to all

[leadpillproductions]

im 2 for 25

[g_worsnop]

i just say i know there is some very lucky people that get the draws year after year but if you dont apply you wont draw nothin just hope your money is goin to wildlife

[quadrakid]

I can,t believe i,m reading another whiny post on leh. Go buy an elk,moose caribou,sheep,whitetail ,blacktail and black bear tag over the counter at your local sporting goods store and get hunting.

[leadpillproductions]

The Good Thing Of 2-for 25 Both Grizz And I Got A Tag This Year.

[leadpillproductions]

Its Fun Just Waiting To See If You Get The Draw

[MuleyMadness]

How is that a 1:1 odd???? Is there a new math system out there that I dont know about?

It's a 1:1 odd because the odds are from last years draws. They just put them in there to give you an idea. No way they can know the odds for this year, seeing as they don't know how many people will put in for a certain hunt code. They do know however, how many autherizations that will be given out, so hence the estimate...last years total draws put in versus the total authorizations for this year. The hard mailed copy has your actual odds of what you did and didn't get this year...whenever it's gonna get here.

[sawmill]

Well you know what.........We could be living in Germany or England where nobody gets to hunt unless they are big ass rich.